Announcement: Web cam strip poker – The Challenge!

The bingo online Challenge!
On December 1st, 2005, I wrote this: I haven’t discussed this with Otis or G-Rob, but that’s okay. They’re just going to have to deal with my bravado whether they like it or not. Up For Poker is issuing a challenge to any other threesome in a last-longer for the WPBT Winter Classic. Here’s how I figure it will work: 1) Final results of the three entrants will be added together, lowest total wins. 2) Each member of each team will throw in $5 and the winning team will split the last-longer prize pool. (All teams are playing against all teams and the winning team will win the total prize pool.) So find your team, and leave it in the comments. I’ll bring a list to Vegas and you all can hand over your money. After all, you think anyone can beat the combination of Otis’ skill, G-Rob’s agression and my luck? Well, guess what? I still haven’t discussed this with Otis or G-Rob, but it’s on again. The Up For Poker crew is challenging you. Same rules. Same prizes. (FYI: Comments currently require approval while I work out some spam issues, so you won’t see your comment right away.)

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Why Bill Belichick Was Wrong
I can’t believe there’s even a discussion about jeux de casino. Everyone knows that Belichick was wrong. He made an arrogant decision that cost his team a victory. Yet rocket scientists and amateur online casino poker players everywhere are breaking out their protractors to justify this game-losing decision. Well, I spent about 10 minutes doing my own research. I present: Other numbers. Over the last 6 weeks of the 2009 NFL football season, teams have attempted to go for it on 4th and 2 on 14 different occasions (including Belichick’s dumb decision). Any idea how many times those 14 attempts have been successful? I’ll give you a minute to guess. Yep, it’s zero. That’s right. A big 0%. Eight incomplete passes, two failed runs, two interceptions, one sack and Belichick’s pass that came up inches short. I wonder if Belichick knew how difficult it is to convert 4th and 2 when he made his bone-headed decision? Anyone who understands football understands the difficulty in converting 4th and 2. It’s a little too far to run meaning teams can play for the pass. In fact, Belichick made it even easier on the Colts by emptying the backfield eliminating any threat of a run at all. Of course, many argue that had New England punted that Manning (because he’s so super-awesome) would have lead a TD drive anyway. I wonder what the numbers say? Over the last 6 weeks of the season, Indianapolis has had 37 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they’ve converted TDs in 10 of them. That’s 27%. Over the last 6 weeks of the season, New England’s opponents have had 44 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they’ve convered TDs in 5 of them. That’s 11%. What about when New England and Indianapolis play each other? Here are some more numbers. In this year’s game, Indianapolis had 12 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 3 of them. That’s 25%. Since 2006 against New England, Indianapolis had 29 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 6 of them. That’s 21%. Of course, Indianapolis got the ball from the 40 yard line or closer twice against New England since 2006 and, predictably, both resulted in TDs, including the game-winner a week ago. So what do the numbers tell me? 4th and 2 conversion rate last 6 weeks: 0% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NFL last 6 weeks: 27% New England’s opponents’ TD rate from 70+ yards last 6 weeks: 11% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE last week: 25% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE since 2006: 21% I don’t know about you… but those numbers certainly don’t support going for it on 4th and 2. Looks like NE had a chance somewhere between 75% and 85% of stopping Indianapolis on a long TD drive but very little chance of either converting the 4th down or stopping the Colts if they failed on the 4th down conversion. And that doesn’t even include the fact that the Colts would have been attempting this drive with just 1 timeout and just 2 minutes left in the game which likely lowers the Colts’ percentages. Of course, lots of people will say I’m cherry-picking. Guess what? That’s what statisticians do. They cherry-pick numbers to support their case. This was a bad decision by Belichick. It’s clear that the decision was last-second which only compounded the mistake. Had New England really intended to go for it on 4th down no matter what, there’s little chance they throw the ball on 3rd down. Not only would a run have been a surprise on 3rd (giving it a better chance of succeeding) it also would have forced the Colts to burn their final timeout and it would likely have gotten them closer for their 4th down attempt (which, given the spot, would have made all the difference). When New England failed on 3rd down, most of the offense was running off the fiel

d and New England was then forced to burn their last timeout which prevented them from challenging the spot on 4th down (although I’m not sure a challenge would have worked). If the plan was to go for it on 4th all along, wouldn’t the offense have known that? After all, they had already burned a timeout in that same drive! Not to mention, going for it in this situation brings all kinds of factors into play, including crowd noise and the potential of the home crowd to influence any close spot in favor of the Colts. Of course, context doesn’t matter to the people with their fancy equations. Context is irrelevant, right?

The Brink of casino games History
I’m not sure how it’s happened, but it has. Otis, G-Rob and The william hill (that’s me) are all above .500 ten weeks into the fantasy football season and all have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Doesn’t sound like a big deal? Well, let’s take a look back at history. In the past 5 seasons, our three teams have a collective 4 playoff appearances and no Super Bowl crowns. We have a collective record of 89-104-3. We have a total of 5 winning seasons among us. Of course, Otis does a lot to bring that total down. All I’ll say about his career fantasy football record is that his only winning season is the year we played XFL Fantasy virtual casino Football. I’m serious. He won the Super Bowl. But this year, the three of us are bunched at the top of the Carolina Division. I’m at 8-2 and Otis and G-Rob are both at 6-4. If the playoffs started this week, G-Rob and I would both be in the playoffs. Otis trails G-Rob by just two points for the final playoff spot and both of them trail the 3rd place team by a game. Of course, there’s still 4 regular season weeks left for something to go wrong. The only thing guaranteed is that at least one of us will be in the playoffs this year. Which sure beats last year when we were a combined 15-26-1!

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